For those who are more "in the know" what's my chances of being called up from IRR by 12/25/2009?

I have almost two years left of IRR service. I was regular US Army, my MOS was the old 91W20 (don't know what it changed to, but it's Health Care Specialist ... i.e. Combat Medic). I left service 4/30/06 as a SGT.

Recruiters have attempted to scare me since before I even left active duty that I had a virtually 100% chance of being called up, but I knew better and resisted their attempts. They went so far as to issue a REAL "order" calling us in to the local regional recruiting office (and paying us) last summer when it appeared there would be a potentially larger call-up.

So, for those of you who may have special or inside knowledge of what the TRUE risk of IRR call-up is, what is your opinion? Assume that a president is elected who at least wants to continue the war effort (go with McCain, for example). What chance do you think there REALLY is for a recall, and when am I most at risk (e.g. last year? first year? middle years?)?

Your chances of being recalled to active duty are slim to none.

The last Army IRR callup was in April 2005. And even then this was for certain 'low-density, high-demand' specialties such as intelligence specialists and EOD. And as the Army expands to the additional 80,000 troops recently authorized by Congress the odds of an IRR callup decrease even further.

The Marine Corps is a smaller service than the US Army and as a result has less robust manpower base to call on. As a result the Marines have had to recently had to call up 1800 people.

The crystal ball is in the shop.

The military won't touch you if you are in your first or last year of IRR time. Having said that, since you have 2 years left, there's a pretty good chance you might get recalled. The fact that you were already called in the regional recruiting office says as much. If the Army has a hard time making mission, you might get issued orders.

I came back into the Marine Corps last January, about a week before they started recalling Marines. Alot of people I served with the first time were flown into the recruiting HQ in KC, MO to see if they were fit for duty. They all were in their 2nd or 3rd year of IRR time. Most of them got out of it for some reason or another, medically mostly. But one or two were issued orders and came back in.

The Army is also giving large bonuses to people becoming Combat Medics. I had a friend join the National Guard Reserves about a year and a half and he got a $20,000 enlistment bonus.