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The Scruffy Space Terrorists Go to 2001YB5: Will they smite the Earth again?


Our gang of evil space terrorists has found a chance too good to pass up. Flying out to 2001-YB5, they affix rocket engines to the 36 billion kilogram asteroid and, at 9:50:24 UT on 29 Apr 2018, they impart a modest delta-vee of 95.31181 m/s in the direction of RA 13h 32m 40.956s, DEC +18.25417 degrees.

Orbital elements of 2001 YB5 (initial).
a = 2.349557177836 au
e = 0.862427471513
i = 5.490700413641 deg
L = 109.3451209415 deg
w = 114.2474452629 deg
T = JD 2453637.57768 (1:51:51.552 UT, 24 Sep 2005)

Orbital elements of Earth.
a = 1.0000001124 au
e = 0.0167102192
i = 0
L = 0
w = 103.078101 deg
T = JD 2454468.667 (4:00:28.8 UT, 3 Jan 2008)

Will the asteroid hit Earth? If so, when?
What would be the impact speed if it does?
What would be the energy in megatons TNT?
What are the elements of the transfer orbit?
If the asteroid meets Earth dead-center, what would be the latitude and longitude of the crater?

Yes. January 2020.
30+ km/sec.
Not sure.
Not too different from the original orbit.
Don't know.

Nope! I was wrong. With that delta-vee, the asteroid will MISS Earth! When I calculated it, I forgot to do the final coordinate rotation from ecliptic coordinates to celestial coordinates. Report It

So, for the delta-vee, what I called "RA" really isn't right ascension. It's ecliptic longitude. Likewise, what I called "DEC" really isn't declination. It's ecliptic latitude. Origin at the asteroid. Report It

I recalculated the delta-vee using the coordinate rotation, and also using double precision instead of single precision variables. The actual change of velocity that will make 2001-YB5 crash into the Earth is... Report It

uh hu

Who really cares.

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